China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to continue growing in 2026, though at a slower pace than last year, as domestic demand remains constrained and global trade uncertainties weigh on the outlook, the country’s main auto industry association said on Wednesday.
NEV sales are projected to reach 19 million units in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 15.2%, according to a report released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). That compares with sales of 16.49 million NEVs in 2025, when volumes rose 28.2% from a year earlier.
See also: China Records 16.49 Million NEV Sales in 2025, Up 28.2% Year on Year – CAAM Says
The forecast implies that NEVs will account for 54.7% of total vehicle sales next year, up from 47.9% in 2025, reinforcing the segment’s growing dominance in the world’s largest automotive market.
CAAM expects China’s overall vehicle sales to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, a modest 1% increase from 2025. Passenger vehicle sales are forecast at 30.25 million units, up 0.5% year on year, while commercial vehicle sales are seen rising 4.7% to 4.5 million units.
See also: China Records 16.49 Million NEV Sales in 2025, Up 28.2% Year on Year – CAAM Says
Exports are also expected to grow, though more moderately than in 2025. CAAM forecasts China’s vehicle exports will rise to 7.4 million units in 2026, up 4.3% year on year. In 2025, China exported 7.1 million vehicles, an increase of 21.1%, including 2.62 million NEVs, which doubled from the previous year.
Despite the positive headline figures, CAAM warned that underlying challenges remain. Domestic demand growth is still weak due to “persistent downward economic pressures and subdued income expectations,” which continue to limit consumer purchasing power, the association said.
See also: China NEV Rankings 2025: BYD Holds 27.2% Share as Tesla Slips to 4.9%, CPCA Data Show
CAAM also cautioned that China’s auto exports face a more complex external environment. “Global geopolitical uncertainties, economic sluggishness and intensifying trade disputes have created a challenging environment for automotive exports,” the association said in the report.
China sold a total of 34.4 million vehicles in 2025, up 9.4% year on year, retaining its position as the world’s largest automotive market for the 17th consecutive year, according to CAAM data.