New U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles are expected to have limited impact on Chinese automakers, analysts said, citing the small volume of Chinese car exports to the American market and the concentration of Chinese vehicle exports in other regions such as Latin America.
The U.S. government imposed an additional 25% tariff on imported vehicles and select auto parts, effective April 3. While the move has triggered concerns in financial markets, analysts believe it will have only a marginal effect on China’s auto sector, as vehicle exports to the U.S. remain relatively low. In 2024, approximately 116,000 vehicles were exported from China to the U.S., accounting for less than 2% of China’s total vehicle exports.
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Most of the vehicles shipped from China to the U.S. last year were produced by American companies, including General Motors and Ford Motor, rather than Chinese brands. In contrast, Chinese automakers exported 445,000 vehicles to Mexico in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%.
However, the majority of these vehicles were shipped directly from China, and do not meet the conditions for tariff exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Only one Chinese automaker, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group (JAC), currently has localized production operations in Mexico.
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Although there is potential for other Chinese automakers to establish manufacturing facilities in Mexico to qualify for USMCA exemptions, analysts expect their immediate focus to remain on serving the Latin American market rather than using Mexico as a channel into the U.S.
Industry observers also note that the new tariffs are unlikely to significantly affect China’s domestic auto market. The impact, they say, will depend on the long-term response from Chinese authorities and the evolution of bilateral trade relations.
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The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) criticized the U.S. tariff policy, warning of potential disruptions to global supply chains and higher vehicle costs. The group called for cooperative dialogue to resolve trade disputes and safeguard the stability of the global automotive industry.