Chinese automaker BYD is expected to surpass Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales for the first time in 2025, according to a new forecast by Counterpoint Research.
The market researcher said in a report on Wednesday that BYD is projected to capture 15.7% of the global BEV market next year, driven by its production scale, technological advancements, and strong government backing. “This is a big opportunity for BYD, and if they deliver on the fast-charging promise, this could be the turning point for BYD and the China BEV story globally,” said Liz Lee, associate director at Counterpoint.
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BYD has been expanding aggressively, leveraging its vertically integrated production model and innovations such as a 1,000-kW ultra-fast charging system and high-performance 10C charging batteries. These advances, according to Counterpoint, set a new industry benchmark that surpasses Tesla’s Supercharger network.
Meanwhile, Tesla faces mounting challenges, including supply chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions, increased competition, and delays in product launches. The report also noted that CEO Elon Musk’s political views have negatively impacted Tesla’s brand perception in key markets such as the U.S. and Europe. “CEO Elon Musk has scored somewhat of an own goal against Tesla, and we are about to catch a glimpse of how much the company’s sales were hurt in Q1 2025,” Lee added.
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Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 336,681 units, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 390,343 and marking a 12.96% decline from the same period a year earlier. In contrast, BYD sold 416,388 passenger BEVs in the first quarter, surpassing Tesla for the second consecutive quarter.
For all of 2024, Tesla retained its position as the top BEV seller, delivering 1,789,226 vehicles globally—just 1.35% ahead of BYD’s 1,764,992 units. However, if the current trends continue, Counterpoint predicts that BYD will take the lead in 2025.