Nearly two million lives could be saved and 1.4 million new cases of childhood asthma prevented globally by 2040 if governments implement stricter policies targeting road transport emissions, according to a new study released Tuesday.
The report, titled “Global health benefits of policies to reduce on-road vehicle pollution through 2040”, was conducted by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), George Washington University, and the University of Colorado Boulder. It examined health outcomes across more than 180 countries and 13,000 urban areas under various policy scenarios.
“Our research demonstrates that policy choices made today will have profound implications for public health outcomes through 2040 and beyond,” said Lingzhi Jin, lead author and researcher at the ICCT. “The data clearly shows that implementing complementary policy measures—particularly Euro 6/VI standards alongside an electric vehicle transition—delivers substantially greater health benefits than single-policy approaches.”
The analysis found that road transport emissions were linked to 252,000 new childhood asthma cases in 2023 alone, accounting for roughly 20% of all cases caused by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure. Without stronger policies, health disparities are expected to widen, with the least developed countries likely to see premature deaths and asthma cases from vehicle pollution nearly double by 2040.
Combining strict tailpipe emissions standards such as Euro 6/VI with electric vehicle (EV) policies could prevent an additional 323,000 premature deaths and 419,000 childhood asthma cases globally compared to focusing on EVs alone, the study found.
Ensuring that EV adoption is paired with clean electricity generation would further reduce harm, potentially avoiding another 212,000 deaths and 98,000 childhood asthma cases by 2040.
“A strength of this study is our ability to assess policy impacts at a granular level across the entire globe,” said Dr. Daven Henze, co-author and professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. “By combining advanced atmospheric modeling with high-resolution satellite data, we’ve created a powerful tool that shows how different policy choices could improve health outcomes in specific communities.”
The report also highlights that vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected. Children under five are projected to account for half of all preventable asthma cases, despite representing only a quarter of the affected age group. Similarly, adults over 65 are expected to bear 70% of the total years of life lost, though they make up just one-fifth of the global adult population.
“Vehicle tailpipe pollution contributes to asthma development in children and increases cardiovascular and respiratory risks among adults,” said Dr. Susan Anenberg, co-author and professor at George Washington University. “We urgently need coordinated global action to ensure all communities, especially those most at risk, benefit from cleaner transportation.”
Urban areas are particularly exposed, with two-thirds of avoidable new childhood asthma cases expected to occur in cities, though they house only one-third of the world’s children.
“The evidence from this study is crystal clear,” said Sheila Watson, Deputy Director of the FIA Foundation, a co-funder of the research. “Policymakers must act on this evidence now to protect public health. This isn’t just about environmental protection—it’s also about saving lives and improving children’s health on a massive scale.”