Europe’s roads could host as many as 108,000 zero-emission buses and coaches by 2030, according to a Market Readiness Analysis released by the European Commission, supported by research from Transport & Mobility Leuven, Ramboll, and the University of Antwerp.
The report outlines a scenario in which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to take a leading role in decarbonizing the heavy-duty vehicle sector. Between 2012 and 2024, Europe registered around 27,000 electric buses. The analysis anticipates that over 80,000 zero-emission buses and coaches will be deployed between 2025 and 2030, averaging approximately 13,000 new units per year—doubling the 2024 figures.
“The offer of zero-emission models for the bus segment represents the largest part in the overall offer of zero-emission models,” the report said, highlighting the availability of 59 BEV bus models with ranges up to 700 km and 15 fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) bus models. However, it noted a limited selection in the long-haul coach segment, with only three announced models up to 2027, two of which are FCEVs.
The study projects a total of 534,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles on European roads by 2030, of which about 459,000 would be battery electric. Hydrogen-powered vehicles are expected to represent a smaller share, with approximately 6,000 hydrogen buses and coaches and 68,000 hydrogen trucks.
The transition is underpinned by stringent regulatory targets, including a mandate for city buses to be 90% zero-emission by 2030 and fully zero-emission by 2035. “Efficiency improvements of conventional diesel engines, though important, will not be sufficient to achieve these targets,” the Commission said, emphasizing the need for rapid adoption of zero-emission technologies.
The report also highlights the energy demand implications of the shift, estimating 6.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity and 0.8 TWh of hydrogen required for buses and coaches by 2030. It notes, however, significant uncertainty remains regarding future consumption rates and the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell drivetrains, especially as hydrogen internal combustion engines are excluded from the analysis due to unclear market potential.
Electrification of short-haul and urban operations is expected to advance faster than long-haul applications, where hydrogen may play a larger role due to its energy density advantages. The report aligns its projections with the EU’s revised CO₂ standards for heavy-duty vehicles, which aim for emission reductions of 43% by 2030 and 90% by 2040 compared to baseline years.
While hydrogen’s contribution is projected to be smaller than in some more optimistic scenarios, the report underscores the importance of supporting infrastructure, in line with the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), to ensure operational viability across various vehicle types and routes.
The findings signal a strong policy-driven push towards electrification and alternative fuels in Europe’s heavy-duty transport sector, marking a critical step toward meeting climate goals and reducing transport emissions.