BYD has reduced its sales target for next year by as much as 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, two people with knowledge of the matter said, as the Chinese automaker faces slowing growth and intensifying competition in its home market.
China’s largest automaker had told analysts in March it was aiming for 5.5 million sales in 2025, but the figure has been revised downward several times in recent months, the people said. The latest target of at least 4.6 million vehicles was communicated internally and to some suppliers last month, though it remains subject to market conditions, according to Reuters reporting.
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The cut follows BYD’s first quarterly profit decline in more than three years, with earnings down 30% last week. One source said the revision comes as BYD contends with stronger competition from domestic rivals such as Geely Auto and Leapmotor.
Adding to the signs of a slowdown, BYD reported nearly flat new energy-vehicle (NEV) sales in August. The company sold 373,626 NEVs during the month, a 0.15% increase from a year earlier and up 8.52% from July. Passenger NEVs accounted for 371,501 units, rising 0.17% year-on-year and 8.93% month-on-month. It was the second consecutive month that BYD’s NEV sales growth remained below 1% on an annual basis.
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The lowered goal also marks the slowest annual growth in five years. Sales of 4.6 million vehicles would be about 7% higher than last year, compared with the tenfold expansion the company achieved between 2020 and 2024, when sales climbed to 4.3 million vehicles.
Analyst projections are already below the company’s earlier outlook. Deutsche Bank this week forecast sales of 4.7 million for 2025, while Morningstar estimated 4.8 million.
The revised target underscores the pressure from weak domestic demand in China, where a prolonged housing downturn has dampened spending. Nearly 80% of BYD’s sales come from the local market, which has been gripped by a prolonged price war.
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BYD has slowed production and delayed some factory expansions, Reuters reported in June. Production fell for a second straight month in August, the company’s first back-to-back decline since 2020. Meanwhile, sales of its economy models priced under 150,000 yuan ($21,000) dropped nearly 10% in July, while Geely’s surged 90% in the same segment.