Tesla’s latest Master Plan Part 3 has been released, and it’s as optimistic as ever. CEO Elon Musk is known for his grandiose plans that are often deemed impossible or unrealistic by critics, but he has a track record of delivering on them in the end.
However, a preliminary analysis by Benchmark suggests that Tesla and Musk may have underestimated the true scale of the investment required for the latest plan. The estimated costs for mining, refining, chemicals, Gigafactories, and recycling come to $3.4 trillion, excluding the $7 trillion estimated for battery production. But Benchmark believes that mining, refining, and chemicals alone could cost between $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion.
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Tesla’s goal is to reach 240 TWh of total battery deployment, which will require significant investments in lithium mining and refining, as well as graphite. The company plans to invest $374 billion in lithium mining and refining and $282 billion in graphite. The estimated cost for Gigafactories and recycling is just over $2 trillion, with the remainder going towards mining, refining, and chemicals.
While some may view the latest plan as overly optimistic, it’s important to remember that Musk has a history of defying expectations. When he founded SpaceX, he was told that landing and reusing rockets was impossible. Yet, he achieved it. When he started Tesla, many believed that electric cars would never take hold. Today, Tesla has four EV factories and is building a fifth.
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It’s clear that Musk has a vision for a sustainable future, and he’s willing to take risks to make it happen. While some plans may fall short or require adjustments, there’s no doubt that he’s already achieved more than most people thought was possible. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, Musk’s optimism and ambition may be exactly what we need.