The Tesla Cybertruck has garnered significant attention and amassed an impressive number of pre-orders, surpassing 1.6 million according to reports. With such overwhelming interest, Tesla’s primary challenge lies in ensuring sufficient manufacturing capacity to meet the demand for its inaugural electric pickup truck.
However, despite its considerable number of reservations, some industry experts, including Morgan Stanley, remain skeptical about the Cybertruck’s potential, viewing it as a niche product that will struggle to compete with mainstream pickup trucks.
Elon Musk, the enigmatic CEO of Tesla, contradicted these doubters, stating earlier this month that he foresees annual sales of 250,000 to 500,000 Cybertrucks once production reaches full capacity.
ARK Invest, a long-standing advocate for Tesla, is even more bullish about the Cybertruck’s prospects. In a recent blog post authored by Sam Korus, the investment firm predicts that the Cybertruck could become a mainstream product, potentially surpassing the popularity of Tesla’s Model Y. ARK suggests that the underestimation of the Cybertruck’s potential stems from a prevailing blind spot.
According to ARK’s own research, global electric vehicle (EV) market share is expected to exceed 70 percent by 2027, with the United States following suit. Citing a forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), ARK highlights that trucks are projected to comprise 69 percent of all vehicles in the US by 2050. However, electric trucks are anticipated to represent only 10 percent of the total, according to the same forecast.
Disagreeing with this outlook, ARK asserts that the Tesla Cybertruck could achieve the same level of mainstream success as the Model Y. The investment firm points to the 1.6 million pre-orders and early Google Trends data as evidence. Notably, ARK observes that on April 2, 2023, the day when Elon Musk tweeted about walking the Cybertruck production line, the number of Google searches for the Cybertruck surpassed those for the Model Y.
While some may argue that relying solely on Google Trends data might be overly simplistic and unscientific, ARK contends that the surge in search volume on that particular day originated in regions known for their affinity for trucks, potentially indicating a genuine desire to purchase. However, it is worth considering that the increased searches could also be attributed to mere curiosity from truck enthusiasts.
ARK emphasizes that sell-side analysts may be uneasy about predicting exponential EV growth, but failing to consider the potential implications of Cybertruck’s success for traditional automakers would be a mistake.
The question remains: Can the Cybertruck truly challenge the position of the world’s best-selling passenger car, not just among electric vehicles, but among all vehicles? Only time will reveal whether ARK Invest’s bold prediction materializes. The Cybertruck’s fate hinges on factors such as manufacturing capacity, consumer adoption, and the evolving landscape of the automotive industry. As the market progresses and the Cybertruck’s production ramps up, its impact on the broader automotive market will become clearer.
