Analysts at JPMorgan have revised their sales projections for BYD, forecasting that the Chinese automaker will likely become the “Toyota” of the global electric vehicle (EV) industry.
In a research note published on Wednesday, analyst Nick Lai’s team increased their global sales estimate for BYD in 2026 to 6.5 million units, up from the 6 million units projected last July. Their forecast for overseas markets remains unchanged at 1.5 million units.
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The latest estimate suggests BYD’s share of the global light-duty vehicle market—including internal combustion engine models—will rise to 7% in 2026, up from 3% in 2023. Its share of the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector is expected to remain stable at around 22%.
JPMorgan sees 2026 as a pivotal year for BYD’s international expansion, with the automaker ramping up production at its four overseas plants in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Hungary. Despite increased tariffs imposed by the European Union, the analysts believe BYD will compete in global markets through vehicle configuration and product differentiation rather than aggressive pricing strategies.
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BYD delivered 4.27 million NEVs in 2024, marking a 41% increase from 3.02 million units in 2023, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. This included 4.25 million passenger NEVs and 21,775 commercial NEVs. Overseas sales surged by 71.86% year-on-year to 417,204 units. JPMorgan expects BYD’s total sales in 2025 to rise by approximately 30% to 5.5 million units. The firm also anticipates that higher production volumes will lower unit costs, strengthening profit margins.
While price cuts have been a common strategy for automakers facing early-year demand fluctuations, BYD took a different approach in 2025. Unlike in early 2024, when it launched price reductions through Glory Edition updates, BYD refrained from slashing prices at the start of this year.
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Instead, on February 10, it introduced Smart Driving edition updates for 21 models while maintaining existing price levels. JPMorgan views this as an alternative form of price competition, noting that Tesla reignited a pricing battle on February 5 with an insurance subsidy for the Model 3. According to Lai’s team, automakers largely postponed price adjustments until February due to strong December sales and low inventory levels following trade-in incentives.