Despite a recent slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, demand for metals like copper, critical to the EV industry, remains strong, according to Tom Mackay, head of refined metal at commodity trader IXM. While the EV market continues to grow, forecasting metal demand remains challenging due to the industry’s evolving nature and various factors affecting it.
“The electric vehicle industry is new. There are a lot of variables, including penetration rates and battery chemistries, which makes forecasting demand a guessing game,” Mackay said, pointing to uncertainties around EV sales growth, charging infrastructure, and resale value concerns. However, he emphasized that despite the recent slowdown, the broader growth trend for EV sales remains positive, contributing to robust demand for metals like copper.
According to consultancy Rho Motion, global sales of battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs rose by 32% last year, reaching 13.63 million units. While the first quarter of this year saw a 25% dip, sales rebounded by 22% in the second quarter, signaling ongoing growth. Copper, used extensively in EV wiring and batteries, plays a crucial role in the sector, along with metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. Mackay noted advances in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology, particularly in China, as a significant development: “Some LFP batteries can go for 1,000 kilometers and charge up to 80% in 10 minutes.”
Looking ahead, Mackay highlighted that while LFP batteries are gaining traction in the Chinese market due to their lower cost, nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) batteries are expected to remain dominant in Western markets, largely because of their recyclability. “Recyclability is a very important factor for automakers when deciding what chemistries to use,” he added.
Source: Reuters
