Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to reach nearly 22 million units in 2025, up 25% from the previous year, according to BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook. The report highlights sustained growth driven by falling battery costs and wider adoption of affordable models, though expectations for the U.S. market have been scaled back due to regulatory uncertainty and reduced federal support.
Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are forecast to account for one in four new passenger car sales globally this year. China is set to dominate, contributing almost two-thirds of total sales, followed by Europe with 17% and the U.S. with 7%. However, BloombergNEF (BNEF) warns that U.S. EV adoption is now expected to be significantly lower than earlier projections.
“The roll-back of federal fuel-economy standards, the phase-out of the EV tax credit and the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own air quality standards, result in a notable decline in EV adoption in the US, impacting global adoption rates,” the report states. BNEF now expects U.S. EV sales to reach 1.6 million units in 2025 and rise to 4.1 million by 2030—14 million fewer than previously projected over that period.
China continues to outpace global competitors, benefiting from lower EV costs and strong domestic production. As of 2024, 69% of all EVs sold worldwide were manufactured in China, and Chinese automakers are expanding into emerging markets such as Thailand and Brazil. BNEF notes that “these sales, paired with an evolving policy landscape in the US, has put adoption in some emerging markets, like Thailand, higher than in the US.”
In the longer term, BNEF’s baseline scenario forecasts electric cars will comprise 56% of global new passenger car sales by 2035 and 70% by 2040, a slight downgrade from last year’s projection. In terms of the total vehicle fleet, however, only 40% is expected to be electric by 2040—well below levels required for net-zero transport emissions.
“2024 was a landmark year for electrified transport, with electric vehicles hitting global sales highs and rapidly increasing adoption from emerging markets across Asia and LatAm,” said Colin McKerracher, lead author of the report and Head of Advanced Transport and Energy Storage at BNEF. “Despite these positive tailwinds, we see slower EV adoption in the short and long-term due in large part to the changing landscape in the US.”
The report also forecasts challenges for the battery sector, with demand from 2025 to 2035 now expected to be 8% lower than previously predicted. Overcapacity is emerging, particularly in China, where battery plant utilization has dropped below 50%, potentially driving down prices and increasing market competition.
Public charging infrastructure is identified as another key concern. Rising electricity prices in the U.S. and Europe since 2022 have made public EV charging more expensive than gasoline in some areas, potentially slowing adoption among consumers without home charging access.
Despite these challenges, BloombergNEF remains optimistic about long-term trends. “Automakers that lose sight of the longer-term trend towards electrification – supported by falling battery prices and improving economics of EVs – risk being squeezed out of the major car markets,” said Aleksandra O’Donovan, Head of Electric Vehicles at BNEF.