Reporting from Carscoops, Sunday (10/16/2022) S&P Global Mobility believes the number of car production could fall from the end of this year and continue until 2023.
Analysts say spare parts shortages and supply chain bottlenecks will weigh heavily on automakers from November to spring 2023. This will only get worse if energy cuts occur during the winter.
Governments in Europe are currently trying to minimize the impact of the energy crisis, but the steps taken do not appear to be sufficient to protect the automotive industry from shutting down production.
Meanwhile, S&P Global Mobility said the just-in-time supply model could face problems and factories may have to stop deliveries of completed vehicles due to a single component shortage.
Forecasts have shown that European car manufacturers could produce between 4 million and 4.5 million vehicles per quarter, but if energy restrictions are imposed, production could fall to 2.8 million vehicles per quarter.
“The pressure on the automotive supply chain will be even stronger, especially moving upstream from vehicle manufacturing,” Edwin Pope told Auto News.
In addition, S&P Global Mobility has compiled a ranking of the 11 major car manufacturing centers in Europe based on the best position to deal with energy problems in the coming winter.
Based on this rating, the Czech Republic and Germany received favorable ratings, as both countries have a low dependence on electricity from gas.
Meanwhile, Spain, Italy and Belgium received bad ratings because they are highly dependent on gas and have not been able to achieve energy self-sufficiency.