A proposed 90% cut in car carbon dioxide emissions by 2035, put forward last week by the European Commission, could allow a significant number of vehicles with combustion engines to remain on the road beyond that date, according to an analysis by environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E).
Sebastian Bock, managing director of T&E Germany, said the headline target appeared less stringent when translated into regulatory detail. “A 90% emissions reduction for cars sounds like a reasonable compromise. Until you look at the details,” Bock wrote in a LinkedIn post. He added that under certain assumptions, the proposal could mean “almost every second car after 2035 could have a combustion engine.”
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Under a 90% reduction target, carmakers would face a fleet-wide limit of around 11 grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2035, according to Bock’s calculations. His scenario assumes that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) would be rated at about 25 g/km under official test procedures and that the so-called utility factor — which weights low-emission vehicles more favourably in fleet calculations — would be loosened in line with industry and German government proposals.
Based on those assumptions, Bock said manufacturers could meet the target while selling up to 46% plug-in hybrids. He warned that such an outcome would undermine climate goals, arguing that many PHEVs emit far more CO2 in real-world driving than under laboratory testing.
Bock cited a Transport & Environment analysis of more than 100,000 plug-in hybrids, which found that the vehicles are driven electrically less often than expected and produce almost five times the CO2 emissions on the road compared with official WLTP figures. He said this gap risked locking manufacturers into continued investment in combustion-based technologies.
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The European Commission is expected to present a broader automotive policy package on Tuesday, which may include adjustments to the current plan to end sales of new combustion-engine cars by 2035. Policymakers are expected to debate possible flexibilities, including the use of e-fuels, biofuels, quotas, or credits linked to low-carbon materials such as green steel.
Last week, Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party (EPP), said an agreement had been reached around a 90% CO2 reduction target for 2035 rather than a full 100% cut. Details of any accompanying conditions or exemptions are expected to emerge with the Commission’s proposal.
