The UK government is expected to reduce its electric vehicle sales targets for automakers, with reports suggesting the 2030 requirement could fall from 80% to 60% as policymakers respond to weaker-than-expected demand and mounting compliance costs.
According to reports by The Guardian and the BBC, First Secretary of State Louise Haigh is expected to announce changes to the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate in the coming days. The revised framework would bring regulatory requirements closer to actual market conditions while retaining flexibility for manufacturers through 2034.
No final decision has been confirmed. Downing Street told the BBC that the government had not yet reached an agreement, while a government source described its approach as “pragmatic and balanced”.
Manufacturers Struggle to Meet ZEV Requirements
Under the existing ZEV mandate, automakers must progressively increase the proportion of zero-emission vehicles in their annual sales. The target is set to reach 80% by 2030, ahead of the planned end of new combustion-engine car sales in 2035.
However, manufacturers have struggled to match the required sales mix. To stimulate demand, many have offered substantial discounts and incentives on electric models, while others face the prospect of penalties for missing their targets.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) expects battery-electric vehicles to account for 27.2% of UK new-car sales in 2026, below the mandated 33% requirement.
The gap is forecast to widen in subsequent years. The ZEV target rises to 38% in 2027, while the SMMT expects electric vehicles to represent approximately 32% of sales. By 2028, the projected market share is expected to trail the 52% requirement by 14.5 percentage points.
Existing compliance mechanisms allow manufacturers to manage some shortfalls through measures including credits, increased hybrid sales and deferred targets.
EV Sales Continue to Grow Despite Regulatory Gap
Electric vehicle adoption has continued to increase in the UK. According to the figures cited in the reports, more than 500,000 electric cars were sold between January and November, representing a 30% year-on-year increase. Battery-electric models also accounted for approximately one-third of new-car registrations in October.
Higher petrol and diesel prices, alongside a broader selection of more affordable electric models, have contributed to the growth.
Nevertheless, the SMMT argues that rising sales are not progressing quickly enough to meet the regulatory timetable without significant financial support.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes called for urgent changes to the mandate, warning that the cost of supporting the transition is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
“Almost one in three new cars registered in October was electric – great progress in the transition, but one that comes at enormous cost,” said Hawes. “The industry and government are spending billions to help drivers switch, but that support cannot be sustained indefinitely with the gap to mandated targets set to more than double by 2028, just as a new EV-only tax is introduced.”
He added:
“Higher targets may force supply, but they do not create demand. The ZEV mandate review must deliver substantive reform effective immediately to ensure we have a healthy market and an attractive pitch to investors.”
Government Departments Divided Over Changes
The government has considered several options during consultations with automakers, ranging from retaining the existing targets while extending compliance flexibilities to reducing the 2030 requirement to as low as 50%.
According to The Guardian, the latest proposals have exposed differences between government departments. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is reportedly pushing for a more substantial reduction, while Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander supports a 60% target. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is seeking to retain the existing 80% requirement.
Haigh is expected to finalise the government’s position following a meeting involving the transport, energy and business departments.
Potential Impact on UK Climate Targets
Any reduction in the ZEV mandate would provide automakers with additional room to manage their transition strategies, particularly as they balance electric vehicle investment with consumer demand and profitability.
However, easing the requirements could also weaken one of the UK’s central policies for reducing transport emissions. The existing mandate was expected to deliver approximately 14% of the government’s targeted carbon dioxide emissions reductions between 2028 and 2032.
The outcome of the review will therefore have implications beyond vehicle manufacturers, affecting the UK’s wider decarbonisation plans and the pace of its transition to zero-emission transport.