Nio founder, chairman and chief executive officer William Li expects new energy vehicles (NEVs) to account for more than 90% of new vehicle sales in China by 2030, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) representing more than 90% of the country’s NEV market.
Li shared the outlook during the 2026 Nio Partner Day on Friday, according to a Weibo post by Nio Vice President of Brand and Communications Ma Lin.
Confidence in Full Electrification
According to Ma, Li’s forecast is based on several factors that have accelerated China’s transition toward electrification over the past two years.
These include rapid changes in the country’s energy mix, continued expansion of charging and battery swapping infrastructure, and significant advances in pure-electric vehicle technology.
The projection suggests China could approach full electrification of its new passenger vehicle market by the end of the decade, with battery electric vehicles becoming the dominant technology.
Market Trends Support Forecast
Recent market data indicates that China’s NEV adoption continues to accelerate.
According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), NEVs accounted for a record 62.9% of passenger vehicle retail sales in May.
Battery electric vehicles represented 67.1% of total NEV retail sales during the month, highlighting growing consumer preference for fully electric models.
Nio’s strategy closely aligns with this trend, as the company manufactures only battery electric vehicles.
Market Faces Short-Term Challenges
Despite record penetration rates, overall market demand remains under pressure.
CPCA data showed NEV retail sales totalled approximately 950,000 units in May, down 7.5% from a year earlier and marking the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year declines.
The high penetration rate has been driven partly by the continued contraction of the conventional internal combustion engine vehicle market.
Retail sales of traditional fuel-powered passenger vehicles fell 39% year on year during May.
Nio Continues to Outperform
Against the broader market backdrop, Nio has continued to report strong delivery growth.
The company delivered 37,705 vehicles in May, its highest monthly total of 2026.
Between January and May, Nio delivered 150,526 vehicles, representing year-on-year growth of 68.7%.
Looking ahead, the China Passenger Car Association forecasts passenger NEV retail sales will reach approximately 1.05 million units in June, an increase of 10.5% compared with May.
The association also expects NEV penetration to rise further to around 63.6%, setting another record for China’s automotive market.
Source: CnEVPost
