BYD ambitious drive into global markets could reach a pivotal moment in 2026, according to analysts at JPMorgan, who predict the Chinese automaker will deliver 6 million vehicles that year.
The forecast, outlined in a July 9 research note by analyst Nick Lai’s team, suggests BYD’s global deliveries in 2026 could include approximately 1.5 million units outside its home market, with the remainder in China. This expansion would see BYD’s share of the global light-vehicle market rise from 3 percent in 2023 to 7 percent in 2026, while maintaining a robust 22 percent share of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market.
In 2023, BYD reported sales of 3,024,417 NEVs, marking a 62.30 percent year-on-year increase, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. The company continued its growth trajectory in the first half of this year, selling 1,612,983 NEVs, up 28.46 percent compared to the same period last year.
JPMorgan views 2026 as a strategic inflection point for BYD’s global ambitions, citing the ongoing development and gradual ramp-up of production at its overseas facilities in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Hungary.
Recent milestones include the commencement of operations at BYD’s Uzbekistan plant in January 26 and the July 4 launch of production at its Thailand facility. Additionally, BYD is constructing passenger car plants in Hungary and Brazil, with plans for a groundbreaking ceremony for its Indonesian plant later this year, slated to begin production in 2026.
The recent agreement between BYD and the Turkish government highlights its strategic intent in Europe, with plans to invest approximately $1 billion in a NEV production base aiming for a 150,000-vehicle annual capacity by the end of 2026. This move underscores Turkey’s strategic position as a gateway to the European automotive market through customs union and free trade agreements with 23 European countries.
Despite facing challenges such as the European Union’s recently imposed provisional anti-subsidy duty on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China, with BYD subject to a 17.4 percent additional duty rate, JPMorgan remains optimistic about BYD’s competitive strategy. The bank anticipates BYD will focus on product differentiation rather than price competition to succeed in overseas markets, leveraging competitive cost structures and advanced product features.
JPMorgan sees strong growth opportunities for BYD in key international markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the European Union, driven by favorable market conditions and potential for higher margins abroad. However, establishing a strong brand presence internationally remains a significant challenge despite BYD’s competitive product offerings.
