China’s robotaxi market is poised for significant expansion, projected to grow nearly 900 times to reach $44.5 billion by 2035, supported by robust supply chains and decreasing hardware costs, according to a report released by research firm TrendForce.
The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96% from 2025 to 2035 for China’s robotaxi sector, outpacing the estimated $36.5 billion size of the U.S. market during the same period. The market in China is expected to grow from a relatively modest $52 million in 2025, the report added.
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TrendForce attributed the aggressive growth outlook to China’s well-established electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, which is expected to enable rapid cost reductions for autonomous driving components. These reductions are likely to lower per-mile robotaxi operating costs, increasing consumer acceptance and boosting adoption.
Key domestic players in China’s autonomous driving space include Baidu, Pony.ai, and WeRide, all of which have been scaling deployment of robotaxi fleets. Backed by local EV manufacturers and component suppliers, these companies are positioned to benefit from economies of scale and improved integration.
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By contrast, the U.S. market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 61% between 2025 and 2035, reaching $36.5 billion. TrendForce identified Tesla and Waymo as the main contenders in the U.S. robotaxi race, noting that Tesla’s vehicle production capabilities and reliance on vision-based systems offer cost advantages.
While Waymo has enjoyed an early lead in the U.S. autonomous driving space, the report suggests its dominance could be challenged if it fails to expand rapidly or reduce operational costs. Tesla is currently conducting pilot robotaxi operations in Texas and anticipates launching its service in the San Francisco Bay Area pending regulatory approval.
