China’s automobile sales are expected to exceed 34 million units in 2025, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales projected to reach about 16 million units, according to a senior official from an industry association, signaling continued expansion of the world’s largest auto market.
Chen Xu, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), shared the outlook at a forum held during the 2025 World Internet of Things Conference, according to local media outlet Cailian.
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He also indicated that China’s vehicle exports this year are likely to surpass 6.8 million units. Based on last year’s total auto sales of 31.4 million units, the forecast suggests overall market growth of about 8.3%, while NEV sales are expected to rise roughly 24.4%. Exports are projected to increase by more than 16%, based on industry data calculations.
From January to October, China’s total vehicle sales reached 27.7 million units, up 12.48% from a year earlier, according to CAAM data released earlier this month. NEV sales during the same period totaled 12.91 million units, representing a 32.41% increase. Vehicle exports over the first ten months reached 5.58 million units, up 15.02% year-on-year, with NEV exports surging 87.43% to 1.98 million units.
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The forecast points to a possible slowdown in sales momentum during the final two months of the year compared with the strong year-end surges seen in previous years. This moderation is partly linked to the gradual phase-out of vehicle trade-in subsidies across multiple provinces and cities, which has reduced the front-loading of demand.
In addition, China’s current purchase tax exemption for NEVs is set to expire at year-end, with buyers to face a 5% purchase tax from next year, a policy shift that could influence consumer demand and purchasing behavior.
