A comprehensive study indicates that the costs of battery systems and fuel cells are poised to decrease noticeably by as early as 2030, with the necessary framework conditions already partially in place.
California and the EU have set ambitious targets for truck emissions, aiming for zero emissions or a 90 percent reduction by 2036 and 2040, respectively. China also plans to nearly eliminate emissions in the transport sector by 2060, highlighting the increasing need for emission-free electric drives using batteries or fuel cells.
The study, published in Nature Energy, suggests that this shift could trigger a significant drop in prices for alternative drives. With investments and subsidies for research and production, the market would undergo a typical expansion-driven price decline.
Analyzing nearly 300 examples with 1,500 data points, the study forecasts that prices for battery systems per kilowatt hour will decrease from over €300 ($330) in 2020 to €180 ($200) in 2030 and €100 ($110) in 2050. Even in less optimistic scenarios, the price is expected to reach €115 ($125) per kilowatt hour. Acquisition costs are projected to decrease by two-thirds to three-quarters by 2030.
Fuel cells are expected to experience an even more pronounced price decline. Starting at €540 ($600) per kilowatt hour in 2020, the price could drop to less than €100 ($110) by 2050, representing less than a fifth of the initial cost.
For consumers, these reductions translate to significant savings. For instance, in a current electric car with a 100-kilowatt-hour battery, prices could decrease by over €10,000 ($11,000) between 2020 and 2030. By 2050, the savings could reach €20,000 ($22,000), considering that the battery currently accounts for roughly half of the purchase price.
