The U.S. government has effectively ended the market for fuel economy compliance credits, dealing a financial blow to electric vehicle makers including Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid that have relied on the system for billions in revenue.
The change follows the passage of President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which removes federal EV purchase incentives starting Sept. 30 and ends penalties for automakers falling short of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has already stopped issuing compliance letters to automakers, a move that effectively halts the trading of credits. Automakers previously purchased credits from EV-only manufacturers at a lower cost than paying fines for non-compliance.
Christopher Nevers, Rivian’s director of public policy, said the company cannot close existing credit deals as a result of the decision. “The company is unable to finalize its credit deals due to the NHTSA’s decision to end the issuance of compliance letters, resulting in a loss of $100 million in revenue,” he said in comments attached to a petition filed by the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) in the U.S. Court of Appeals.
NHTSA said the pause is temporary. “NHTSA is focusing on fixing CAFE standards to make cars more affordable again. When that process is complete, we will return to issuing compliance letters to manufacturers,” a spokesperson told investing.com.
Industry analysts say the most exposed company is Tesla, which reported nearly $2.5 billion in global regulatory credit revenue over the past four quarters. Analysts estimate that up to half of that came from U.S. sales.
The uncertainty leaves EV makers facing a near-term revenue gap. Rivian said it no longer expects any CAFE credit income this year, while other automakers have not disclosed the potential impact.