Tesla’s forthcoming Cybertruck is poised to enter production, generating immense anticipation and establishing itself as one of the most highly awaited vehicle launches in recent memory. However, an industry analyst has cast doubt on the sustained success of the Cybertruck, asserting that despite the initial buzz, the vehicle will ultimately be relegated to the status of a niche product.
John Murphy, the lead analyst for Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, expressed his views on the Cybertruck during a recent meeting at the Automotive Press Association in Detroit. Murphy outlined that while the Cybertruck may experience an explosive launch due to pent-up demand accumulated over the four years since its initial unveiling, it will likely transition into a low-volume vehicle. “I think it will be a niche vehicle,” stated Murphy. (via The Detroit Bureau)
Official figures regarding the current number of Cybertruck reservations have not been released by Tesla. The last update provided by CEO Elon Musk dates back to 2019 when he mentioned on Twitter, six days after the official unveiling, that Tesla had already secured 250,000 reservations. By extrapolation, this amounts to an average of over 2,100 reservations per hour or approximately one reservation every two seconds between the unveiling and the tweet.
While reservation numbers tend to peak immediately following a product unveiling, interest in Cybertruck reservations has not waned. Unofficial trackers now estimate the total number of reservations to exceed 1.5 million. Critics argue that the low reservation cost of $100 USD resulted in an influx of reservations from individuals who may ultimately cancel their orders. However, a recent 2023 study revealed that 75% of Cybertruck reservation holders intend to follow through with their purchase once the vehicle becomes available.
Even if a higher percentage of reservations are ultimately canceled, Tesla will require several years to fulfill the existing backlog. Recent reports indicate that Tesla aims to achieve a minimum annual production volume of 375,000 Cybertrucks by a later stage in 2024. Therefore, even if 50% of reservations are canceled, Tesla would still possess over 750,000 reservations, effectively accounting for more than three years of production.
This sentiment from industry analysts echoes previous predictions. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas suggested that the Cybertruck might find itself as an “enthusiast/cult car” with limited production.
The question remains whether the Cybertruck will indeed evolve into a niche product with restricted demand. As the production process advances, reservation holders will soon have the opportunity to decide whether they will follow through on their reservations or cancel.
