Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, has made bold predictions about achieving fully autonomous driving in the past, but they have often fallen short of reality. Despite this track record, Musk remains determined to forecast when Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software will live up to its name and operate without any human intervention.
During his speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on July 6, Musk expressed that Tesla’s FSD is nearing a stage where it can function without human supervision, possibly reaching Level 4 or even Level 5 autonomy before the year’s end. According to AFP, Musk acknowledged that his statement was speculative, introducing an element of uncertainty from the CEO himself.
“I believe Tesla is on the verge of achieving full self-driving without human supervision. Although this is speculative, I think we’ll attain full self-driving, perhaps at Level 4 or 5, later this year.”
While Musk acknowledged his previous misjudgments regarding autonomy, he conveyed a sense of optimism by stating, “I feel like we’re closer to it than we ever have been.” Significantly, he specifically referenced Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy, which entail no human intervention during the driving process.
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines Level 5 as a fully autonomous driving system that operates in all areas and conditions without requiring driver takeover at any point. Level 4, a slightly less advanced stage, enables complete autonomous operation in most situations while offering the driver the option to manually override.
However, when assessing Tesla’s current Full Self-Driving Beta stack, it becomes apparent that the company is still a considerable distance away from achieving Level 4, let alone Level 5 autonomy.
Presently, Tesla’s FSD Beta takes control once the driver sets a destination in the navigation system. After reaching the programmed destination, the car will automatically hand back control to the driver, often requiring multiple driver interventions during the journey. Consequently, this falls short of meeting the criteria for Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy.
Musk has previously claimed that FSD is safer than a human driver by a certain factor. The forthcoming Dojo supercomputer, slated for launch next month, is expected to enhance safety further. It will enable Tesla to process the vast amounts of data from its vehicle fleet, utilizing real-world driving scenarios to expedite improvements to the FSD Beta.
Nevertheless, the question remains: Will the Dojo supercomputer facilitate achieving Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy before the end of this year? We eagerly await the perspectives of FSD Beta-equipped Tesla owners, as they hold firsthand experience and insights into the capabilities of Tesla’s autonomous driving software.
