A major European research initiative led by Volkswagen AG has found that automated driving could significantly reduce road fatalities while improving energy efficiency, according to results from the Hi-Drive EU Flagship project.
The study, conducted over 53 months using simulations based on real-world driving data, indicates that a 30% penetration of automated vehicles could reduce fatal motorway accidents by around 20%. In urban environments, fatalities could fall by approximately 22%, alongside even greater reductions in minor injury incidents.
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland played a central role in assessing the broader impacts of automation on traffic systems, including safety, energy consumption and travel behavior.
The findings suggest that while automated driving may slightly increase travel times—by between 0% and 4% due to more cautious driving and route optimization—the trade-off results in substantial safety and comfort benefits.
“The project was the most comprehensive impact assessment for future European traffic to date,” said Satu Innamaa.
From an efficiency perspective, the study found that average tractive energy consumption per vehicle-kilometre decreased under most traffic conditions. However, overall CO₂ emissions across the network showed only marginal reductions of between 0% and 1%.
Researchers also identified potential new types of incidents linked to transitions between automated and human control, though these accounted for just 0.3% of motorway accidents in the simulations.
The Hi-Drive project operated with a total budget of €60 million, including €30 million in funding from the European Commission, and involved 53 organisations across Europe.
The results provide data-driven insights for policymakers and automakers as the industry moves toward higher levels of automation, particularly Level 4 systems. While challenges remain, the study suggests that automated driving could deliver a net positive impact on road safety and energy use across Europe.