Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to make up more than half of new light vehicle sales in Europe by 2032, overtaking hybrids after 2030, consultancy EY said in a report published on Tuesday.
The study forecasts BEVs will climb to nearly 100% of new car sales across the region by 2050, driven by policy targets, a rebound in consumer demand and the introduction of lower-cost models. “Policy targets, a rebound in demand and affordable models are expected to drive EV uptake,” EY said, noting that softened emissions penalties through 2027 will not prevent the shift.
The findings come as European automakers showcase new battery-powered vehicles at the IAA Mobility show in Munich, where they face mounting competition from Chinese rivals that are rapidly expanding in the region. The industry is also contending with a challenging global landscape, including U.S. tariff increases and intensifying trade tensions.
In the United States, EY expects electric vehicle sales to rise sharply before the expiry of tax credits but to slow significantly thereafter. Globally, across Europe, the U.S. and China, light vehicle sales are projected to see moderate growth in 2025, slowing to 2.2% year-on-year from 8% in 2023, before falling below 2% annually by 2030. The consultancy warned that rare earth shortages, trade frictions and the phase-out of incentives in the U.S. could weigh on supply chains and vehicle affordability.